What Are Outs in Poker?
In poker, “outs” refer to the cards that will improve your hand to potentially give you the best hand at the table. Outs are a fundamental concept for beginners to understand because they help you calculate your chances of improving your hand on the next community cards. Mastering how to calculate outs is a critical step toward making better decisions in poker.
Why Calculating Outs Is Important
Knowing how many outs you have allows you to assess the probability of improving your hand. This information is crucial for deciding whether to call, raise, or fold in various situations. It also helps you evaluate your pot odds (the ratio of the current pot size to the cost of a contemplated call), which determines whether continuing in a hand is profitable in the long run.
Steps to Calculate Outs
Step 1: Identify Your Current Hand
Start by determining the strength of your current hand. Are you on a draw (flush, straight, or pair draw), or do you already have a made hand that can improve further? Understanding your situation is the foundation for calculating outs.
Step 2: Determine the Cards That Will Improve Your Hand
Next, figure out which cards in the deck will improve your hand. These are your “outs.” For example:
- If you have a flush draw (four cards of the same suit), there are nine remaining cards of that suit in the deck that can complete your flush.
- If you have an open-ended straight draw (e.g., 6♣ 7♣ on a board of 8♦ 9♠ 2♥), there are eight cards (four 5s and four 10s) that can complete your straight.
Step 3: Subtract Known Cards
In poker, there are 52 cards in the deck. Once the flop, turn, and your hole cards are revealed, you can subtract these known cards from the total deck. For example:
- 2 hole cards + 3 flop cards = 5 known cards.
- Remaining deck = 52 – 5 = 47 unknown cards.
This means that your outs are among these 47 unknown cards.
Step 4: Count Your Outs
List the cards that will improve your hand and count them. Be careful not to double-count cards that overlap with multiple draws. For instance:
- If you’re drawing to both a straight and a flush, some cards may complete both draws. These overlapping cards should only be counted once.
Common Draw Scenarios and Outs
Flush Draw
If you have four cards of the same suit, there are nine outs to complete your flush. For example:
- Your hand: A♠ Q♠
- Board: 10♠ 7♠ 2♦
- Remaining outs: 9 spades.
Open-Ended Straight Draw
An open-ended straight draw has eight outs. For example:
- Your hand: 6♣ 7♣
- Board: 8♦ 9♠ 2♥
- Remaining outs: Four 5s and four 10s.
Inside (Gutshot) Straight Draw
A gutshot straight draw has four outs. For example:
- Your hand: J♥ Q♥
- Board: 10♦ 8♣ 2♠
- Remaining outs: Four 9s.
Pair to Set (Trips)
If you hold a pair, there are two cards remaining in the deck to give you a set. For example:
- Your hand: 8♠ 8♦
- Board: K♣ Q♥ 2♦
- Remaining outs: Two 8s.
The Rule of 2 and 4 for Quick Calculations
To quickly estimate your chances of hitting your outs, use the Rule of 2 and 4:
- Rule of 2: Multiply your outs by 2 for the probability of hitting on the next street (e.g., from the flop to the turn).
- Rule of 4: Multiply your outs by 4 for the probability of hitting by the river (e.g., from the flop to the river).
Example:
- You have a flush draw with 9 outs.
- Using the Rule of 4, your chance of hitting by the river is approximately 9 × 4 = 36%.
- Using the Rule of 2, your chance of hitting on the next card (turn) is approximately 9 × 2 = 18%.
Adjusting for Dead Outs
Dead outs are cards that improve your hand but also give your opponent a better hand. For example:
- You hold 6♠ 7♠.
- The board is 8♠ 9♠ J♦.
- While a 10 completes your straight, it may also give your opponent a better hand if they’re holding Q♠ K♠ for a higher straight or flush.
Subtract these dead outs from your total count to avoid overestimating your chances.
Practical Example: Calculating Outs
Scenario
- Your hand: A♦ K♦
- Board: Q♦ J♦ 5♣
- Outs to a flush: 9 remaining diamonds.
- Outs to a straight: Four 10s.
Total outs = 9 (flush) + 4 (straight) = 13 outs. However, if any of the 10s are diamonds, they overlap as outs for both the flush and straight. Adjust for these overlaps to get the correct number of outs.
Mistakes to Avoid When Calculating Outs
Overcounting Outs
Double-check for overlapping outs, as counting the same card twice can lead to inaccurate probabilities.
Ignoring Opponent Ranges
Consider whether your opponents might have stronger draws or hands. Outs that improve your hand but give them an even stronger hand are not valid.
Misapplying the Rule of 2 and 4
While the Rule of 2 and 4 is helpful, it’s an approximation. Always consider the context and board texture for more accurate calculations.
Conclusion
Learning how to calculate outs is a fundamental skill for poker players of all levels. By understanding how to count outs accurately and estimate probabilities, you can make more informed decisions at the table. Combine this knowledge with an understanding of pot odds and opponent tendencies to enhance your overall game strategy. With practice, calculating outs will become second nature, helping you maximize your chances of success in any poker game.